Global Economies and War Conflicts from the GPC

Author: Hajira Uzma

Editors: Jigyasa Prabhakar, Ashleigh Rivera

Issue

The GPC (Great Power Competition) between China and the United States has started to negatively affect global economies heavily. The economic complications between the two countries are causing disruptions in trade due to the tariffs being inflicted by the US and China, increasing costs worldwide. Essentially, there are price spikes that spur lower economic growth and lead to excessive trade margins. The GPC is causing war conflicts such as military buildup and regional tension. This is highlighted by a study Brooking reports by writing , “We could face the “return of the jungle” — a period of increasingly unchecked rivalry between the world’s top powers, with risk of military conflict growing apace.” With profound effects on global cooperation and stability, the rivalry between the US and China is also changing alliances and global governance frameworks. All of this leads to disruptions in global trade and international security.

Analysis

The GPC has already led to significant disruptions in global trade. The US-initiated trade battles of 2018 which led to tariffs on commodities valued at hundreds of billions USD have established a precedent for a more protectionist international trade landscape. Global supply chains have shifted as a result of these upheavals, forcing businesses to diversify their manufacturing sites outside of China. Look to the example of Southeast Asia, Southeast Asian nations have experienced a rise in investment when businesses look for alternatives to Chinese manufacturing; yet, this has led to higher costs and inefficiencies in international trade. As part of their rivalry for worldwide influence, China and the US have both dramatically raised their military budgets. The Asia-Pacific area, where China has increased its military footprint in the South China Sea and the US has strengthened its relationships with regional countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, is where this military partnership is most noticeable. The likelihood of armed conflicts is increased by this military density, especially in disputed regions like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, other regional powers like Japan and India are raising their defense budgets in response to the nuclear race, which could spark a larger regional nuclear race. Future developments in this rivalry will have an impact on international security, economic expansion, and stability on a worldwide scale. Managing this competition in a way that minimizes conflict and maximizes potential for cooperation is the solution to foster a sense of international community.

Solution

A mutual and high-level diplomatic engagement between China and the US is an essential strategy to ease tensions and prevent miscommunications. Frequent summits between the leaders of the two nations and continuing discussions at different governmental levels can foster confidence and offer a forum for mitigating issues before they escalate. These discussions ought to center on issues of shared interest, such non-proliferation, climate change, and global health, where collaboration is crucial. Otherwise, establishing strong dispute resolution procedures is a reasonable solution in bilateral trade agreements. These agreements extend to guarantee fair trade practices, lower tariffs, and safeguard intellectual property rights. Future trade wars will be de-escalated by diplomacy and economic stability could be enhanced by a transparent and equitable process for settling trade disputes.